2. Liga (Austria) · Fri, Aug 21 · 16:30 · Austria Salzburg vs Kapfenberger SV
Likeliest: Austria Salzburg win · 55%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austria Salzburg55%56%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Kapfenberger SV21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 59% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 72% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austria Salzburg
WinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · at Young Violets Austria Wien (A)1-3
- Aug 8 · v First Vienna (H)4-1
- Aug 2 · at FC Hertha Wels (A)2-0
Kapfenberger SV
LossLossLoss
- Aug 15 · v FC Wacker Innsbruck (H)0-1
- Aug 8 · at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (A)2-3
- Jul 31 · v FC Liefering (H)0-4