2. Liga (Austria) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:30 · Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II
Likeliest: Austria Salzburg win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austria Salzburg54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Sturm Graz II22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austria Salzburg
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 28 · at SKN St. Pölten (A)0-1
- Aug 21 · v Kapfenberger SV (H)3-2
- Aug 15 · at Young Violets Austria Wien (A)1-3
- Aug 8 · v First Vienna (H)4-1
- Aug 2 · at FC Hertha Wels (A)2-0
Sturm Graz II
LossWinLossLossWin
- Aug 30 · v Rapid Wien II (H)5-2
- Aug 22 · at Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Admira Wacker (H)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Floridsdorfer AC (H)4-2
- Aug 1 · at First Vienna (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Austria Salzburg | Sturm Graz II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-2 | 2-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.