Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:30 · Austria Wien vs SC Austria Lustenau
Likeliest: Austria Wien win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austria Wien51%51%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
SC Austria Lustenau24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austria Wien
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 2 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-0
SC Austria Lustenau
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)1-2
- Aug 2 · v SV Ried (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Austria Wien | SC Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 1-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.