Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 17:30 · Austria Wien vs SK Sturm Graz
Likeliest: SK Sturm Graz win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austria Wien29%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
SK Sturm Graz43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austria Wien
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)2-1
- Sep 2 · v WSG Tirol (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-0
SK Sturm Graz
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Stade Rennais (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v LASK (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Austria Wien | SK Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.