Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:30 · Austria Wien vs Sporting Braga
Likeliest: Sporting Braga win · 50%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Austria Wien28%27%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Sporting Braga50%47%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 47% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 36% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Austria Wien
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 20 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-0
- Aug 13 · v Beitar Jerusalem (H)1-2
- Aug 9 · v LASK (H)0-2
- Aug 6 · at Beitar Jerusalem (A)2-1
Sporting Braga
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 20 · v Austria Wien (H)2-0
- Aug 13 · at Dinamo Minsk (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Moreirense (A)2-2
- Aug 6 · v Dinamo Minsk (H)1-0
- Jul 30 · v FK Železničar Pančevo (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Austria Wien | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.