Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:45 · Auxerre vs Angers
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 58%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre58%50%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Angers19%23%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 47% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 50% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 77% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 50% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 68% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at RC Lens (A)2-5
- May 17 · at LOSC Lille (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Nice (H)2-1
- May 3 · v Angers SCO (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
Angers
Loss
- Aug 23 · v Lille (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.