Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 3 · 15:15 · Auxerre vs Angers SCO
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 54%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre54%57%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Angers SCO21%17%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 46% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 83% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 77% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Apr 19 · at Monaco (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Brest (H)3-0
Angers SCO
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Rennes (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Lens (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.