Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 21 · 18:00 · Auxerre vs Brest
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 49%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre49%40%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−7
OursMarket
Brest28%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 60% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 58% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 13 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Strasbourg (H)0-0
- Mar 1 · at Lorient (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Metz (A)3-1
Brest
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 14 · at Monaco (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Mar 1 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Feb 20 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-0
- Feb 14 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.