Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:15 · Auxerre vs Le Mans
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Le Mans28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Le Havre (A)3-1
- Oct 11 · at Stade Rennais (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Stade Brestois (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Nice (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-3
Le Mans
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v Toulouse (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at PSG (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Lorient (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · v RC Lens (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Nice (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.