Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 14 · 16:15 · Auxerre vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 43%
A 32% home win. The market says 22%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre32%22%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
LOSC Lille43%51%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 78% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 30% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Dec 7 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Paris (A)1-1
- Nov 23 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Nov 9 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
LOSC Lille
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 11 · at Young Boys (A)0-1
- Dec 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Nov 27 · v Dinamo Zagreb (H)4-0
- Nov 23 · v Paris (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.