Coupe de France (France) · Sun, Dec 21 · 13:45 · Auxerre vs Monaco
Likeliest: Monaco win · 40%
A 37% home win. The market says 17%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre37%17%+19
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
Monaco40%61%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 39% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 83% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 22% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Dec 14 · v LOSC Lille (H)3-4
- Dec 7 · v Metz (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Paris (A)1-1
- Nov 23 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
- Nov 9 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
Monaco
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 14 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
- Dec 9 · v Galatasaray (H)1-0
- Dec 5 · at Brest (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-0
- Nov 26 · at Pafos FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.