Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 11 · 17:00 · Auxerre vs Nantes
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 49%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre57%49%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Nantes21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 42% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 51% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 68% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 5 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Strasbourg (H)0-0
- Mar 1 · at Lorient (A)2-2
Nantes
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 5 · at Metz (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.