Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 10 · 19:00 · Auxerre vs Nice
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 51%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre51%39%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Nice25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 50% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 61% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 55% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- May 3 · v Angers SCO (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Apr 19 · at Monaco (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Nantes (H)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Le Havre (A)1-1
Nice
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- May 2 · v Lens (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · at Strasbourg (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-0
- Apr 12 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.