Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Nov 23 · 14:00 · Auxerre vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 27%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre38%27%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais35%45%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 55% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 73% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 37% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Strasbourg (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Le Havre (H)0-1
- Oct 19 · at Rennes (A)2-2
Olympique Lyonnais
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Nov 9 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)2-3
- Nov 6 · at Real Betis (A)0-2
- Nov 2 · at Brest (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · at Paris (A)3-3
- Oct 26 · v Strasbourg (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.