Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 1 · 20:05 · Auxerre vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Auxerre42%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 29 · at Strasbourg (A)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Le Havre (H)0-1
- Oct 19 · at Rennes (A)2-2
- Oct 4 · v Lens (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-2
Olympique Marseille
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 29 · v Angers SCO (H)2-2
- Oct 25 · at Lens (A)1-2
- Oct 22 · at Sporting CP (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · v Le Havre (H)6-2
- Oct 4 · at Metz (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.