Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 22 · 14:00 · Auxerre vs Rennes
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 32%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre48%32%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Rennes29%40%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 60% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 68% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 45% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Feb 15 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
- Jan 23 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-1
- Jan 17 · at Lens (A)0-1
Rennes
LossLossLossLossWin
- Feb 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Lens (A)1-3
- Feb 3 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at Monaco (A)0-4
- Jan 24 · v Lorient (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.