Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Mar 7 · 18:00 · Auxerre vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Strasbourg win · 48%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Auxerre29%27%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−5
OursMarket
Strasbourg48%45%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 38% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Mar 1 · at Lorient (A)2-2
- Feb 22 · v Rennes (H)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Metz (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v Paris (H)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Toulouse (A)0-0
Strasbourg
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Mar 3 · v Reims (H)2-1
- Feb 27 · v Lens (H)1-1
- Feb 22 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)3-1
- Feb 14 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-2
- Feb 8 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.