Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Feb 9 · 16:15 · Auxerre vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Auxerre win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Auxerre42%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Toulouse32%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Auxerre
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Feb 1 · at Monaco (A)2-4
- Jan 24 · v Saint-Étienne (H)1-1
- Jan 19 · at Angers SCO (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-0
- Jan 5 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
Toulouse
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Feb 5 · v Guingamp (H)0-2
- Feb 2 · v Nice (H)1-1
- Jan 26 · v Montpellier (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-0
- Jan 15 · v Laval (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Auxerre | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-3 | 2-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.