USL League One (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 02:30 · AV Alta FC vs Greenville Triumph SC
Likeliest: Greenville Triumph SC win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AV Alta FC36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Greenville Triumph SC36%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AV Alta FC
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Westchester SC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Forward Madison FC (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v One Knoxville SC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-5
Greenville Triumph SC
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at AC Boise (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Union Omaha SC (H)1-3
- Sep 19 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)0-6
- Sep 16 · v Corpus Christi FC (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | AV Alta FC | Greenville Triumph SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-9 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.