Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Avellino vs Padova
Likeliest: Avellino win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Avellino40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Padova30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Avellino
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Cesena (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Sampdoria (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Ascoli (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Palermo (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Modena (A)1-0
Padova
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Carrarese (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Palermo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Ascoli (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Cremonese (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Avellino | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.