J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 06:00 · Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
Likeliest: Fagiano Okayama win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Avispa Fukuoka27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Fagiano Okayama39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Avispa Fukuoka
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 7 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)2-3
Fagiano Okayama
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 7 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)3-2
- Sep 2 · at JEF United Chiba (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Avispa Fukuoka | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.