J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
Likeliest: Avispa Fukuoka win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Avispa Fukuoka38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Gamba Osaka31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Avispa Fukuoka
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Machida Zelvia (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)2-1
- Oct 7 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)0-1
Gamba Osaka
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)2-2
- Oct 13 · at Newcastle Jets (A)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Kashima Antlers (A)0-2
- Sep 23 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Avispa Fukuoka | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.