Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 09:30 · Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama FC
Likeliest: Avispa Fukuoka win · 35%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Avispa Fukuoka35%39%−4
OursMarket
Draw35%31%+3
OursMarket
Yokohama FC30%29%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 32% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Avispa Fukuoka
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)1-2
Yokohama FC
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 4 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Kataller Toyama (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Imabari (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Iwaki FC (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Albirex Niigata (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Avispa Fukuoka | Yokohama FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.