Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic
Likeliest: Dunfermline Athletic win · 42%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ayr United27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Dunfermline Athletic42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ayr United
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Livingston (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Stenhousemuir (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Queen's Park FC (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Partick Thistle (A)0-1
Dunfermline Athletic
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Greenock Morton (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Queen's Park FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Arbroath (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Raith Rovers (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Livingston (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Ayr United | Dunfermline Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.