Championship (Scotland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:30 · Ayr United vs Partick Thistle
Likeliest: Partick Thistle win · 54%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ayr United19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Partick Thistle54%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ayr United
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Dunfermline Athletic (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Livingston (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Stenhousemuir (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Queen's Park FC (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Inverness Caledonian Thistle (H)1-3
Partick Thistle
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Livingston (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Arbroath (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Raith Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Ayr United (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Ayr United | Partick Thistle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.