Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 · AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente
Likeliest: AZ Alkmaar win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ Alkmaar42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
FC Twente33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ Alkmaar
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at SC Cambuur (A)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Feyenoord (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
FC Twente
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · v FC Thun (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | AZ Alkmaar | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.