Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Likeliest: AZ Alkmaar win · 76%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 76% for the home win. The market says 73%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ Alkmaar76%73%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Hapoel Be'er Sheva9%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ Alkmaar
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Feyenoord (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v SC Telstar (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at SC Heerenveen (A)3-2
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | AZ Alkmaar | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.