KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Jan 14 · 20:00 · AZ vs Ajax
Likeliest: AZ win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ56%45%+11
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Ajax23%29%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 55% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 61% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Jan 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Dec 21 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)3-4
- Dec 18 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Drita (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
Ajax
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Jan 11 · at Telstar (A)3-2
- Dec 20 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Dec 17 · at Excelsior Maassluis (A)7-2
- Dec 14 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Dec 10 · at Qarabağ (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | AZ | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.