Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 8 · 13:30 · AZ vs Ajax
Likeliest: AZ win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 41%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ54%41%+13
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Ajax24%33%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 67% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 59% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 55% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 3 · v FC Twente (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
- Jan 25 · at Telstar (A)1-0
- Jan 21 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-3
Ajax
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 1 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Villarreal (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | AZ | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.