KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Tue, Feb 3 · 19:00 · AZ vs FC Twente
Likeliest: AZ win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 35%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ55%35%+20
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
FC Twente23%38%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 54% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 62% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 65% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 48% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Jan 31 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
- Jan 25 · at Telstar (A)1-0
- Jan 21 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-3
- Jan 14 · v Ajax (H)6-0
FC Twente
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 30 · at NAC Breda (A)2-2
- Jan 24 · v Excelsior (H)0-0
- Jan 18 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
- Jan 13 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Jan 10 · v PEC Zwolle (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | AZ | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-6-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.