Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 3 · 14:45 · AZ vs FC Twente
Likeliest: AZ win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 35%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ50%35%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−1
OursMarket
FC Twente27%41%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 65% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 59% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 65% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 46% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Apr 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-1
- Apr 16 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-0
- Apr 9 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-3
FC Twente
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v FC Volendam (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Mar 15 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | AZ | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.