Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 4 · 16:45 · AZ vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: AZ win · 64%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ64%72%−7
OursMarket
Draw20%17%+3
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard15%11%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 89% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 28% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 86% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 22 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Mar 19 · at Sparta Praha (A)4-0
- Mar 15 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-0
- Mar 12 · v Sparta Praha (H)2-1
- Mar 7 · at PSV (A)1-2
Fortuna Sittard
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Mar 21 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Telstar (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-2
- Feb 20 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | AZ | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.