Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 7 · 13:30 · AZ vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: AZ win · 53%
A 25% away win. The market says 14%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ53%67%−14
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles25%14%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 86% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 33% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 82% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
LossLossWinLossWin
- Dec 3 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
- Nov 30 · at FC Twente (A)0-1
- Nov 27 · v Shelbourne (H)2-0
- Nov 23 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-3
- Nov 9 · v PSV (H)1-5
Go Ahead Eagles
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Nov 30 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-2
- Nov 27 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-4
- Nov 22 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-4
- Nov 9 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · at Salzburg (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | AZ | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.