Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · AZ vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: AZ win · 70%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ70%69%+1
OursMarket
Draw18%18%0
OursMarket
NAC Breda12%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 69% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 31% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 82% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 84% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- May 10 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
- May 3 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
- Apr 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-1
- Apr 16 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-2
NAC Breda
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- May 10 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- May 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Ajax (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | AZ | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.