Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 31 · 15:30 · AZ vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: AZ win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 69% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Jan 25 · at Telstar (A)1-0
- Jan 21 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-3
- Jan 14 · v Ajax (H)6-0
- Jan 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
NEC Nijmegen
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Jan 24 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at De Treffers (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · at NAC Breda (A)4-3
- Dec 20 · v Ajax (H)2-2
- Dec 16 · at AFC (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | AZ | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.