KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 19 · 16:00 · AZ vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 44%
A 44% away win. The market says 34%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ34%40%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen44%34%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 66% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 54% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 16 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-0
- Apr 9 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-3
- Apr 4 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
NEC Nijmegen
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Apr 12 · v Feyenoord (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at PSV (A)3-2
- Mar 8 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | AZ | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.