Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 9 · 15:45 · AZ vs PSV
Likeliest: AZ win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
AZ37%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
PSV36%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 6 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
- Oct 26 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-1
- Oct 23 · v Slovan Bratislava (H)1-0
- Oct 18 · at Ajax (A)2-0
PSV
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 4 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)1-1
- Oct 31 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)5-2
- Oct 26 · at Feyenoord (A)3-2
- Oct 21 · v Napoli (H)6-2
- Oct 18 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | AZ | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.