Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 12 · 14:45 · AZ vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: AZ win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 55%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ59%55%+4
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 71% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 9 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-3
- Apr 4 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Groningen (A)0-3
- Mar 19 · at Sparta Praha (A)4-0
- Mar 15 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-0
SC Heerenveen
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 5 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
- Mar 22 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Mar 14 · v Telstar (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | AZ | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.