Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 22 · 15:45 · AZ vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: AZ win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ60%50%+10
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam20%25%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 59% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 67% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 19 · at Noah (A)0-1
- Feb 14 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · v Ajax (H)1-1
- Feb 3 · v FC Twente (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
Sparta Rotterdam
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Feb 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-2
- Jan 31 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Jan 25 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · at Feyenoord (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | AZ | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.