KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Wed, Mar 4 · 19:00 · AZ vs Telstar
Likeliest: AZ win · 54%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AZ54%64%−10
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Telstar24%15%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 85% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 36% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 81% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AZ
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Feb 26 · v Noah (H)4-0
- Feb 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)3-1
- Feb 19 · at Noah (A)0-1
- Feb 14 · at Excelsior (A)2-1
Telstar
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Feb 27 · v NAC Breda (H)3-0
- Feb 22 · at Feyenoord (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-1
- Feb 5 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | AZ | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.