Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:30 · Bahia vs Flamengo
Likeliest: Flamengo win · 49%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bahia24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Flamengo49%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bahia
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Athletico (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Remo (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)3-2
Flamengo
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 16 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Fluminense (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at Santos (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Independiente del Valle (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bahia | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.