1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:30 · Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK
Likeliest: Bandırmaspor win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bandırmaspor39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Iğdır FK30%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bandırmaspor
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Bodrum FK (A)1-2
- Oct 13 · v Sivasspor (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v Ümraniyespor (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · at Sarıyer (A)1-1
Iğdır FK
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Boluspor (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Keçiörengücü (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Batman Petrolspor (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Muğlaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Mardin 1969 Spor (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bandırmaspor | Iğdır FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.