Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:00 · Banfield Reserve vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve
Likeliest: Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Banfield Reserve34%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Banfield Reserve
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 6 · at Unión Santa Fe Reserve (A)0-5
- Sep 29 · v Atlético Tucumán Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Lanús Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Godoy Cruz Reserve (A)0-3
- Sep 10 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (H)1-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 6 · v Rosario Central Reserve (H)2-2
- Sep 29 · at Tigre Reserve (A)1-2
- Sep 23 · v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v San Lorenzo Reserve (H)2-0
- Sep 8 · at Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Banfield Reserve | Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 1-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.