Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:00 · Banfield vs Argentinos Juniors
Likeliest: Argentinos Juniors win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Banfield20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Argentinos Juniors50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Banfield
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Tigre (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · v Rosario Central (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Barracas Central (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)1-1
Argentinos Juniors
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Platense (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Tigre (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Rosario Central (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Barracas Central (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Banfield | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.