Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:45 · Banfield vs Lanús
Likeliest: Lanús win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Banfield24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Lanús42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Banfield
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Tigre (A)2-1
- Oct 6 · v Rosario Central (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Barracas Central (H)1-1
Lanús
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Platense (A)1-0
- Oct 12 · v Vélez Sarsfield (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)0-0
- Sep 22 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Banfield | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.