Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Baník Ostrava vs AC Sparta Praha
Likeliest: AC Sparta Praha win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Baník Ostrava18%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
AC Sparta Praha58%54%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Baník Ostrava
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · at SK Kladno (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at 1. FC Slovácko (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FK Pardubice (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at FK Jablonec (A)0-3
AC Sparta Praha
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v FK Pardubice (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Sigma Olomouc (A)3-0
- Sep 16 · at FC Ararat-Armenia (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FK Jablonec (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Baník Ostrava | AC Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.