UAE League Cup (UAE) · Thu, Oct 1 · 15:45 · Baniyas vs Al-Wahda FC
Likeliest: Al-Wahda FC win · 53%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Baniyas21%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Al-Wahda FC53%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Baniyas
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 20 · at Al-Dhafra (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · at Khor Fakkan (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Hatta (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Al-Wahda FC (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v United (H)2-3
Al-Wahda FC
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Al-Jazira (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Al Kuwait SC (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Al-Sharjah (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Al-Dhafra (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Baniyas (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Baniyas | Al-Wahda FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-4 | 4-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.