UAE Pro League (UAE) · Fri, Oct 16 · 15:45 · Baniyas vs Al Wasl
Likeliest: Al Wasl win · 67%
Likely score: 1–2
A 67% away win. The market says 62%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Baniyas14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Al Wasl67%62%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 33% | 38% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Baniyas
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Ajman (A)0-1
- Oct 1 · v Al-Wahda FC (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Al-Dhafra (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · at Khor Fakkan (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Hatta (H)0-1
Al Wasl
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 12 · v Al-Ahli (H)1-3
- Oct 8 · at Khor Fakkan (A)2-1
- Oct 2 · v Al-Ittihad Kalba (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Al-Ain (H)3-2
- Sep 14 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Baniyas | Al Wasl |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.