LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Sep 13 · 23:00 · Barcelona SC vs Delfín
Likeliest: Barcelona SC win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona SC54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Delfín20%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona SC
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 7 · at Aucas (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Manta FC (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Orense SC (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · at Mushuc Runa (A)0-0
Delfín
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 6 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Técnico Universitario (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Mushuc Runa (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Aucas (H)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Independiente del Valle (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Barcelona SC | Delfín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 1-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.