LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:30 · Barcelona SC vs Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Likeliest: Barcelona SC win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Barcelona SC36%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Universidad Católica del Ecuador34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Barcelona SC
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at LDU (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Delfín (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Aucas (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Manta FC (A)0-2
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Macará (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at LDU (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Delfín (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Aucas (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Barcelona SC | Universidad Católica del Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 2-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.